Britain has voted to leave the EU and the pound has taken the first of what is likely to be a series of nosedives, as the implications of the vote and the political fallout play through the stock markets.

Economic uncertainty has become the status quo and consumer confidence is already a casualty, with a couple of Porsche dealers I spoke to on Friday reporting cancelled deals in the Brexit vote aftermath. Buying a £70k Porsche for weekends seems entirely superfluous given the unknown future that British workers now face, not to mention the enhanced investment oportunities that became available on the FTSE 100, where shares in banks and UK housebuilders fell by up to 40%.

As was expected, the strongest enquiries on Friday came from buyers with Euros to spend. Some dealers had stockpiled LHD Porsches ready to list, which may have been a canny play, most effective on rarer Porsche models with a high ticket price: GT3 RS 4.0s, Carrera GTs and the like. But cheaper classic Porsches also look slighty better value, with a £50k Porsche costing $68,520 or €61,919 today compared to $73,463 or €65,110 on the day before the UK referendum*.

Porsche prices down 7% (for US buyers)

Falls of 7% in the dollar price or 5% in euros may not seem all that special, but exchange rate changes are only the start. The effect of reduced trading will take a while longer to play out in the car market. By the time of the referendum, many dealers had still not corrected asking prices for softening classic car sentiment seen since the start of 2016, so that has yet to be implemented. Dealers now also face falling domestic demand from uncertain consumers, who will likely avoid big-ticket purchases until they know what the future of UK plc holds for them. When falling prices are combined with falling exchange rates, the atraction for overseas buyers is far more significant.

At present – bearing in mind that it has only been a few days since the shock vote to Leave – the country effectively has no Prime Minister, no credible opposition party, no support in Europe and has presented the public with no economic strategy for a life outside Europe. The UK has been downgraded by credit agencies, making its national borrowing more expensive. This is likely to affect the big public works including a £55 billion high-speed rail project intended to bridge the North/South divide and an £18 billion nuclear power station in partnership with a French power company.

Some of this is positive, as many of the vastly expensive public works programmes are widely unloved given the UK’s budget deficit, but as UK plc reels back public spending, EU funding to disadvantaged areas dries up and financial centres and manufacturing plants discuss relocating to inside the EU, with associated job losses gripping public consciousness, the chances of recession will grow more likely.

What happens next?

What could happen next? One scenario (and one that played out in the 2008 crash) is that, as the consequences of the referendum vote begin to take hold and luxury car sales begin to tail off, there will be casualties. Traders holding stock by means of a bank stocking loan or private investment will come under extreme pressure should they be unable to make their repayment schedules. A lack of car sales to disenchanted private buyers and a fall in market value for all cars, but especially the most expensive vehicles due to shrinking demand will soon burn through forecourts. Repossessed stock will end up at auction selling for knock down prices, which will further undermine public confidence. This is not going to happen immediately, but the likelihood grows with every day there is instability at the top of UK governance.

Second Referendum

Alternative scenarios currently doing the rounds include the possibility of a second referendum to head off the disintegration of the United Kingdom, as Scotland voted to stay in the EU and the winning margin for Leave was less than 2% on a turnout of less than 75%. A second referendum is highly unlikely at the minute, but as the original referendum was not legally binding and an online petition called for a second vote has captured 3 million signatures in less than three days, who knows what might happen next. Either way, the philosophical schism this referendum has opened within the UK is not good for sales.

Another possibility is that it will all be fine, with the UK economy entering a period of prolonged expansion, jobs for all and revitalised public services. However likely you believe this may be, it’s not going to happen next week, so the short term outlook is rather less positive. Prices will certainly feel some effect.

Je begrijpt het dus duidelijk niet echt ...

Kijk maar in de UK waar Farage na aandringen van een journalist moest bekennen dat zijn cijfertjes eigenlijk gewoon niet klopten ... Een leugen dus.

Die Engelsen gooien gewoon de prijzen van de Porsches omhoog, zo gauw ze merken dat meer Euro-burgers interesse tonen!